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Jan3 CEO Samson Mow says that Bitcoin dominance hasn’t yet exhausted its upside trajectory after analyzing how altcoin prices would stack up against Bitcoin if all were on equal terms of total supply.His forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance to rise further comes as the ratio has already exceeded the levels many crypto analysts expected it would reach by late 2024.“Unit bias is absolutely destroying the uninitiated,” Mow said in an April 19 X post. Mow suggested that unit bias — a psychological method in behavioral economics that suggests that individuals usually like to own a complete unit or stock regardless of its price and size — often causes less experienced investors to assume cheaper whole altcoins are better value than owning part of a Bitcoin.Mow questions altcoin valuations on level playing field“You can buy one twenty-one millionth of the BTC supply for ~$85,000,” Mow said. He asked, “What happens if you remove unit bias from alts to calculate the equivalent of 1/21 million?”He pointed out that Ether (ETH) would be priced at $9,200, XRP (XRP) would be priced at $5,800, and Solana (SOL) would be priced at $3,400 — representing increases of approximately 278,746%, 470%, and 2,328%, respectively, from their prices at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.“No way these alts are worth that much,” Mow said. Source: Samson MowSunny Po, an anonymous Bitcoin proponent, said on Jan. 12 that “Unit bias is a core foundational framework of the normie mind. ‘Cheaper better.’”Mow said that “most” altcoins take advantage of unit bias by implementing a very high total supply so market participants “can’t figure out what they’re buying.”Related: XRP: Why it’s outperforming altcoins — and what comes nextBased on his calculations, Mow said Bitcoin dominance is going “so much higher.” Bitcoin dominance — a metric that reflects Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization — is often used by traders to gauge when Bitcoin might be nearing a price peak. Historically, when Bitcoin Dominance declines, it often signals the start of altcoin season, with capital flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins to find higher returns.Bitcoin Dominance is up 9.11% over the past six months. Source: TradingViewAt the time of publication, Bitcoin Dominance is sitting at 63.69%, as per TradingView data.Several crypto analysts were forecasting Bitcoin Dominance to top out at 60% in late 2024 before the beginning of an altcoin season. In August 2024, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen said “I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, my target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%.”Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) push to isolate crypto markets and its controversial recommendations on DeFi and stablecoins is “dangerous” for the entire financial system, warns the head of a blockchain investment firm.“Many of their recommendations and conclusions — perhaps due to a mix of fear, arrogance, or ignorance — are completely uninformed and, frankly, dangerous,” CoinFund president Christopher Perkins said in an April 19 X post, referring to the BIS’ April 15 report titled “Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications.” BIS recommendations exposes TradFi to risks of “unimaginable scale”“Crypto is not communism,” Perkins said, pushing back against the BIS’ call for a “containment” approach to isolate crypto from traditional finance and the broader economy.“It’s the new internet that provides anyone with a connection access to financial services,” Perkins said. “You cannot control it anymore than you control the internet,” he added.Perkins warned that a containment approach to crypto would expose the traditional financial system to massive liquidity risks “of unimaginable scale,” especially when the crypto market operates in real-time, 24/7, while traditional financial markets shuts down after trading hours.“If implemented they will cause--not mitigate--the systemic risk they seek to prevent.”The report warned that the number of investors and amount of capital in crypto and DeFi have “reached a critical mass,” with investor protection becoming a “significant concern for regulators.”Source: Michael EgorovPerkins pushed back against the BIS’ claim that DeFi presents significant challenges, arguing instead that it represents a “significant improvement” over the “opacity” and imbalances of the traditional financial system.Related: Crypto industry is not experiencing regulatory capture — AttorneyResponding to the BIS’s concern about the anonymity of DeFi developers, Perkins questioned its relevance:“Sorry, but when was the last time a TradFi company published a list of its developers? Sure, public companies provide a degree of disclosures and transparency, but they seem to be dying off in favor of private markets.”Perkins also critiqued the BIS’s concern around stablecoins that it could lead to “macroeconomic instability in countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.”“If there is demand for USD stablecoins and it helps improve the condition of anyone in the developing world, perhaps that is a good thing,” Perkins said.Source: Christopher PerkinsPerkins wasn’t alone in criticizing the controversial report. Lightspark co-founder Christian Catalini also weighed in, posting a series of critiques on X that same day. Catalini summed up the report with the analogy:“Think: writing parking regulations for a fleet of self‑driving drones — earnest work, two technological leaps behind.”Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

Today in crypto, CoinFund’s president has taken aim at the latest crypto report from the BIS, Charles Schwab CEO eyes April 2026 window for debut of spot Bitcoin trading, a new report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns that crypto and stablecoins may destabilize finance and widen inequality.‘Crypto is not communism’ — Exec slams BIS’ take on cryptoThe Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) push to isolate crypto markets and its controversial recommendations on DeFi and stablecoins is “dangerous” for the entire financial system, warns the head of a blockchain investment firm.“Many of their recommendations and conclusions — perhaps due to a mix of fear, arrogance, or ignorance — are completely uninformed and, frankly, dangerous,” CoinFund president Christopher Perkins said in an April 19 X post, referring to the BIS’ April 15 report titled “Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications.” “Crypto is not communism,” Perkins said, pushing back against the BIS’ call for a “containment” approach to isolate crypto from traditional finance and the broader economy.“It’s the new internet that provides anyone with a connection access to financial services,” Perkins said. “You cannot control it anymore than you control the internet,” he added.Charles Schwab CEO hints spot BTC trading may come in April 2026Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said the financial services company is looking at a potential April 2026 target to rollout spot Bitcoin trading to its clients.According to RIABiz, the CEO said that crypto was attracting traffic to the financial service company's crypto-focused website.70% of that traffic was not Schwab clients and represented potentially new prospects, Wurster said. The Schwab CEO gave a timeline for the rollout:“Our expectation is that with the changing regulatory environment, we are hopeful and likely to be able to launch direct spot crypto. Our goal is to do that in the next 12 months."The move comes at a time when many traditional financial institutions are increasingly adopting crypto or offering digital asset products to their clients.Crypto, DeFi may widen wealth gap, destabilize finance: BIS reportThe growing adoption of cryptocurrencies may pose risks to the traditional financial system and exacerbate wealth inequality, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).In an April 15 report, the BIS warned that the number of investors and amount of capital in crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) have “reached a critical mass,” with investor protection becoming a “significant concern for regulators.”The size of the crypto market signals that authorities should be worried about the “stability of crypto over and above the role it may have for TradFi and the real economy,” the report states, highlighting the role of stablecoins, which the BIS said have “become the means through which participants transfer value within crypto.”BIS report on crypto and DeFi’s functions and financial stability implications. Source: BISThe report calls for targeted stablecoin regulation on stability and reserve asset requirements that will guarantee the redemption of stablecoins for US dollars during “stressed market conditions.”

Financial educator, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, and investor Robert Kiyosaki recently forecasted a $1 million Bitcoin (BTC) price by 2035 as the US dollar continues to lose value to inflationary monetary policies."I strongly believe, by 2035, that one Bitcoin will be over $ 1 million, Gold will be $30,000, and silver $3,000 a coin," Kiyosaki wrote in an April 18 X post.Kiyosaki, a self-described gold bug, has long argued that bearer assets like gold, silver, and more recently Bitcoin, are critical hedges against inflation and key to long-term generational wealth accumulation through economic cycles.United States M2 money supply 1959-2025. Source: TradingView"In 2025, credit card debt is at all-time highs, US debt is at all-time highs, unemployment is rising, 401k’s are losing, and pensions are being stolen. The USA may be heading for a greater depression," Kiyosaki warned.Kiyosaki, like many other sound money advocates, has continually warned of an impending financial crash brought on by expansionist monetary policies and fiscal irresponsibility. Bitcoin maximalists argue that loose monetary policy will drive the price of Bitcoin to seven-figures.Related: Bitcoin could hit $1M if US buys 1M BTC — Bitcoin Policy InstituteAnalysts eye $1 million BTC in the 2030sIn May 2024, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey forecasted that the price of a single BTC would be $1 million by 2030 and could appreciate further.Trader and investor Michaël van de Poppe told Cointelegraph, in November 2024, that Bitcoin could go to $1 million. However, the price appreciation would come with hyperinflation and a broader economic collapse, the trader said.Blockstream CEO Adam Back said the price of Bitcoin could rise to $1 million per coin if the Trump administration established a Bitcoin strategic reserve for the United States and started buying Bitcoin on the open market.On Dec. 10, Eric Trump delivered the keynote speech at the Bitcoin MENA event in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and predicted that Bitcoin would hit $1 million due to its scarcity.More recently, in February 2025, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said that Bitcoin could hit $1.5 million by 2030 if demand for the digital asset continues to grow.Magazine: TradFi fans ignored Lyn Alden’s BTC tip — Now she says it’ll hit 7 figures: X Hall of Flame

Charles Schwab Corp CEO Rick Wurster is reportedly eyeing an April 2026 launch window to provide spot Bitcoin (BTC) trading services to Schwab clients.According to RIABiz, Wurster cited a 400% increase in traffic to Schwab's crypto website as evidence of investor interest in digital assets. The CEO predicted:“Our expectation is that with the changing regulatory environment, we are hopeful and likely to be able to launch direct spot crypto. Our goal is to do that in the next 12 months, and we are on a great path to be able to do that.”The Schwab CEO's comments reflect the growing trend of traditional financial (TradFi) institutions adopting crypto products and offering services that blur the line between the digital asset world and TradFi.Related: Lyn Alden lowers Bitcoin forecast after ‘tariff kerfuffle,’ eyes liquiditySchwab makes crypto moves under new CEO Rick Wurster assumed the helm at Schwab in 2025, and in a November 2024 Yahoo Finance interview, said the company was happy to provide services to clients who want to trade digital assets.At the time, Wurster told the financial news outlet that Schwab wanted to offer crypto directly to its clients but was waiting for a positive regulatory catalyst.Following the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States, Wurster said the financial services company anticipated a much better regulatory environment to expand its digital asset services.The Schwab CEO previously said he did not own any cryptocurrency, adding that he felt "silly" for not investing in the nascent asset class as it has continued to provide outsized investment gains.Rick Wurster speaking to Yahoo Finance in November 2024. Source: Yahoo FinanceIn January 2025, Charles Schwab partnered with the Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) to provide customized exchange-traded funds and cryptocurrency services for the upcoming "Truth.Fi" service.Truth.Fi will encompass digital assets and traditional financial services as a proposed alternative to the legacy banking system.TMTG CEO, and White House official, Devin Nunes said the goal of TMTG is to provide an option for individuals worried about unfair banking practices and "cancellation, censorship, debanking, and privacy violations committed by big tech and woke corporations.”Magazine: Researchers accidentally turn ChatGPT evil, Grok ‘sexy mode’ horror: AI Eye

Brandon Ferrick, general counsel at Douro Labs, said that the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) openness to public input on crypto policy and their roundtable discussions are positive signs that the crypto industry is not currently experiencing regulatory capture.In an interview with Cointelegraph, Ferrick identified signs of regulatory capture including, a public-to-private sector revolving door of employees, the same roster of attendees at regulatory events, and special treatment given to certain crypto projects. However, Ferrick added:"The reason why I am not worried today is that a lot of what you're seeing from the regulatory side, like the SEC, for example, is totally open, public, and there are available opportunities to have conversations with the regulators about changing or thinking about the regulatory structures.""[The SEC] has a public portal where you can just submit written commentary on your thoughts for the crypto regulatory environment, and you can schedule meetings with them," the attorney continued.Crypto Industry executives and panelists discuss cohesive crypto regulation at the SEC’s first crypto roundtable in March 2025. Source: SEC As the crypto industry becomes more integrated with the traditional financial system and engages state regulators more, some analysts and executives are worried that the industry is experiencing regulatory capture that will skew incentives and politicize the burgeoning crypto sector.Related: SEC staff gives guidance on how securities laws could apply to cryptoSEC hosts several roundtable discussions on crypto policyThe SEC has hosted several crypto roundtable discussions and panels, with more slated in the coming months — a sharp contrast from the agency's regulation-by-enforcement approach under former SEC chairman Gary Gensler.On March 21, the regulatory agency hosted its first crypto roundtable, which featured crypto industry executives, SEC officials, and even opponents of the crypto industry.Former SEC official John Reed Stark was highly critical of the industry and opposed comprehensive regulatory reform, arguing that digital assets must comply with existing securities laws.Former SEC official John Reed Stark addresses the SEC’s March 2025 crypto roundtable. Source: SECThe SEC's April 11 roundtable focused on trading rules and included a different set of panelists, including representatives from Uniswap and Coinbase.The next SEC panel will occur on April 25 and focus on establishing guidelines for crypto custodians and other firms holding crypto on behalf of customers.Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Opinion by: Jin Kwon, co-founder and chief strategy officer at SagaCrypto has come a long way in boosting transaction throughput. New layer 1s (L1s) and side networks offer faster, cheaper transactions than ever before. Yet, a core challenge has come into focus: liquidity fragmentation — the scattering of capital and users across an ever-growing maze of blockchains.Vitalik Buterin, in a recent blog post, highlighted how scaling successes have led to unforeseen coordination challenges. With so many chains and so much value splintered among them, participants face a daily tangle of bridging, swapping and wallet-switching. While these issues affect Ethereum, they also affect nearly every ecosystem. No matter how advanced, new blockchains risk becoming liquidity “islands” that struggle to connect with one another.The real costs of fragmentationLiquidity fragmentation means there is no single “pool” of assets for traders, investors or decentralized finance (DeFi) applications to tap into. Instead, each blockchain or side network hosts its own siloed liquidity. For a user who wants to buy a token or access a specific lending platform, this siloing introduces multiple headaches. Switching networks, opening specialized wallets and paying multiple transaction fees are far from seamless, especially for those less tech-savvy. Liquidity is also thinner in each isolated pool, leading to price disparities and higher slippage on trades. Many users resort to bridges to move capital across chains, yet these have been frequent targets for exploits, raising fear and mistrust. If it’s too cumbersome or risky to move liquidity around, DeFi fails to gain mainstream momentum. Meanwhile, projects scramble to deploy across multiple networks or risk being left behind.Some observers worry that fragmentation could drive people back to a few dominant chains or centralized exchanges, undermining the decentralized ideals that fueled blockchain’s rise.Familiar fixes, with persisting gapsSolutions have emerged to tackle this tangle. Bridges and wrapped assets enable basic interoperability, but the user experience remains cumbersome. Crosschain aggregators can route tokens through a chain of swaps, yet they generally don’t merge the underlying liquidity. They only help users navigate it. Meanwhile, ecosystems like Cosmos and Polkadot bring interoperability within their frameworks, though they are separate realms in the broader crypto landscape.The problem is fundamental: Each chain views itself as distinct. Any new chain or sub-network must be “plugged in” at the ground level to truly unify liquidity. Otherwise, it adds another liquidity island that users must discover and bridge into. This challenge is compounded by chains, bridges and aggregators seeing one another as competition, leading to intentional siloing and making fragmentation even more pronounced.Integrating liquidity at the base layerIntegration at the base layer addresses liquidity fragmentation by embedding bridging and routing functions directly into a chain’s core infrastructure. This approach appears in certain layer-1 protocols and specialized frameworks, where interoperability is treated as a foundational element rather than an optional add-on. Recent: What are exit liquidity traps — and how to detect them before it is too lateValidator nodes automatically handle crosschain connections, so new chains or side networks can launch with immediate access to the broader ecosystem’s liquidity. This reduces reliance on third-party bridges that often introduce security risks and user friction.Ethereum’s own challenges with heterogeneous layer-2 (L2) solutions underscore why integration is essential. Different participants — Ethereum as a settlement layer, L2s focusing on execution, and various bridging services — have their own motivations, resulting in fragmented liquidity. Buterin’s references to this issue highlight the need for more cohesive designs. An integrated base-layer model brings these components together at launch, ensuring that capital can flow freely without forcing users to navigate multiple wallets, bridge solutions, or rollups.An integrated routing mechanism also consolidates asset transfers, mimicking a unified liquidity pool behind the scenes. By capturing a fraction of the overall liquidity flow rather than charging users for every transaction, such protocols reduce friction and encourage capital mobility across the network. Developers deploying new blockchains gain instant access to a shared liquidity base while end-users avoid juggling multiple tools or encountering unexpected fees. This emphasis on integration helps maintain a seamless experience, even as more networks come online.Not just an Ethereum issueWhile Buterin’s blog post focuses on Ethereum’s rollups, fragmentation is ecosystem-agnostic. Whether a project builds on an Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible chain, a WebAssembly-based platform, or something else, the fragmentation trap arises if liquidity is fenced off. As more protocols explore base-layer solutions — embedding automatic interoperability into their chain design — there’s hope that future networks won’t splinter capital further but instead help unify it.A clear principle emerges: Throughput means little without connectivity.Users shouldn’t need to think about L1s, L2s or sidechains. They just want seamless access to decentralized applications (DApps), games and financial services. Adopting will follow if stepping onto a new chain feels identical to operating on a familiar network.Toward a unified and liquid futureThe crypto community’s focus on transaction throughput has revealed an unexpected paradox: The more chains we create for speed, the more we fragment our ecosystem’s strength, which lies in its shared liquidity. Each new chain intended to boost capacity creates another isolated pool of capital.Building interoperability directly into blockchain infrastructure offers a clear path through this challenge. When protocols handle crosschain connections automatically and route assets efficiently, developers can expand without splintering their user base or capital. Success in this model comes from measuring and improving how smoothly value moves throughout the ecosystem.The technical foundations for this approach exist today. We must implement them thoughtfully, with attention to security and user experience.Opinion by: Jin Kwon, co-founder and chief strategy officer at Saga. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Whales and institutions are increasing their Bitcoin holdings ahead of Easter, as market analysts predict a weekend with less volatility after two weeks of heightened volatility driven by escalating global trade tensions.A wallet linked to London-based investment firm Abraxas Capital acquired 2,949 Bitcoin (BTC) worth more than $250 million during the four days leading up to April 19.In the latest transaction, the firm bought over $45 million worth of Bitcoin from Binance on April 18, according to crypto intelligence firm Lookonchain, citing Arkham Intelligence data.Source: Arkham Intelligence, LookonchainThe investment came days after Michael Saylor’s Strategy bought $285 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $82,618 per BTC, as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders signal continued confidence in Bitcoin, amid global tariff uncertainty.Large Bitcoin investors, or whales, continue accumulating, absorbing over 300% of Bitcoin’s yearly issuance as exchanges continue losing coins at a historic pace, Cointelegraph reported on April 18.Related: Spar supermarket in Switzerland starts accepting Bitcoin paymentsCrypto analysts eye quiet Easter weekend after weeks of turmoilDespite continued accumulation from whales and institutions, volatility concerns were raised by significant movements from the medium-term Bitcoin cohort, which holds coins for an average of three to six months.Over 170,000 Bitcoin entered circulation from the medium-term cohort, a development that may signal “imminent” crypto market volatility, according to pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet.“The effect of this metric on LTF moves is overstated as large onchain movement of coins hardly ever affects weekend price action since it’s not on liquid markets or CEX markets,” analysts at Bitfinex exchange told Cointelegraph, adding:“It is important to note that funding rates remain relatively flat currently. Moreover, US markets are closed as we have a long weekend for Easter, so volatility could be suppressed barring headlines from the White House.”Related: Crypto, DeFi may widen wealth gap, destabilize finance: BIS reportMarcin Kazmierczak, chief operating officer of RedStone Oracles, added that the recent movements may be operational transfers, not necessarily signs of imminent selling pressure.Still, concerns over weekend volatility have been amplified over the past two weeks after the Mantra (OM) token’s price collapsed by over 90% on Sunday, April 13, from roughly $6.30 to below $0.50, triggering market manipulation allegations and highlighting “critical” liquidity issues in the industry.Two weeks ago, on April 6, Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Sunday, as investor concerns spread from a record-breaking  $5 trillion sell-off from the S&P 500, its largest on record.BTC, SPX, year-to-date chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe correction was caused by Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading availability, which made it the only large liquid asset available for de-risking on Sunday, Blockstream CEO Adam Back told Cointelegraph.“On a weekend, there’s not much volume. So you have a worse risk of rapid sort of flash crashes or flash dips that get filled in again,” he said.Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

XRP (XRP) has bounced nearly 30% after a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals now point to a deeper correction ahead.XRP cup-and-handle pattern hints at 40% drop XRP is forming a classic bearish reversal pattern that could see its price falling by at least 40% in the coming weeks.Dubbed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H), the pattern forms when the price rounds off in a curved descent (cup) followed by a brief consolidation phase (handle) — all atop a common neckline support level. Inverted cup-and-handle pattern illustrated. Source: MediumThe pattern is confirmed by a breakdown stage, where the price breaks decisively below support and falls by as much as the pattern’s maximum height. As of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern’s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. In this case, the primary downside target will likely be around $1.24, almost 40% below current prices.XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingViewThe IC&H target aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $1.28 — and further coincides with a November 2024 top.Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that XRP’s market cap could drop by 50% in the coming weeks.Source: Peter BrandtXRP onchain fractal hints at 50% correction XRP’s inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with its historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have topped out. For instance, the cryptocurrency saw sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following major surges in previous cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.XRP realized price by age (aggregated). Source: GlassnodeFor traders, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved. When the market price trades well above this level, most holders are in profit, which can encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price nears the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, and selling pressure can intensify.In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing steam, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price at around $1, a likely downside target in 2025 down about 50% from the current prices.Interestingly, XRP’s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph’s analysis in late March.XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewAdding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. The metric historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks. Related: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish — Here is whyXRP percent of addresses in profit. Source: GlassnodeIf history repeats, such similar conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement toward the realized price.Odds of XRP hitting record highs are declining Sentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket. As of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March, as shown below.XRP all-time highs before 2026 odds. Source: PolymarketThe upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under Donald Trump’s trade policies.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces “unprecedented” US dollar correlation as new BTC price research gives a $75,000 floor.In one of his latest analyses on April 18, network economist Timothy Peterson calculated that BTC/USD may rise as high as $138,000 within the next three months.BTC price probabilities give bulls the upper handBitcoin is navigating highly unusual macroeconomic conditions as a result of the ongoing US trade war, but history still offers clues as to where BTC price action may head next.For Peterson, the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, currently at over 8%, holds the key.“This has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data),” he summarized. “3 months later: Bitcoin was up 71% of the time. The median gain was +31%. If it went lower, the worst loss was -16%.”US High Yield Index Effective Yield. Source: Timothy Peterson/XWith BTC/USD performance thus skewed to the upside, Peterson gave hope to those waiting for a rematch of all-time highs from January.“This likely puts Bitcoin between $75k and $138k within 90 days,” he concluded.Bitcoin would need to deliver 62% gains within that period to achieve that maximum level.As Cointelegraph reported, Peterson has been a frequent contributor to BTC price forecasts in 2025, with one of his proprietary tools, Lowest Price Forward, giving 95% odds of a $69,000 floor in March.Bitcoin DXY correlation will flip negativeTurning his attention to the dramatic drop in the US dollar index (DXY) thanks to US trade tariffs, he predicted that its unusual positive correlation with BTC would ultimately end.Related: Bitcoin price volatility 'imminent' as speculators move 170K BTC — CryptoQuant“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented. The relationship is not causal, but reflective of underlying conditions affecting both,” he explained.  “Historically inverse, the relationship flipped in 2024 as both assets began responding to the same macro stressors: tightening liquidity, high real rates, and global risk aversion.  BTC will decouple and rise when real yields drop + liquidity returns.”BTC/USD vs. US dollar index (DXY). Source: Timothy Peterson/XDXY continued to stay below the key 100 mark on April 18, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, reflecting some of its lowest levels in the past three years.Earlier, separate analysis nonetheless saw the potential for Bitcoin to directly benefit from dollar weakness in a manner similar to the early innings of the bull run in 2023.US dollar index (DXY) 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.